Amor 2016 CK246 - cometary origin and hilda like resonance

 Mercury6 Integration Parameters

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)

) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)= 2461221.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Backward Integration Results

This asteroid today is an Amor that has an almost perfect 3:2 resonance with Jupiter.

Due to the high eccentricity it was already suspected to have a cometary origin and the backward simulation confirms this idea.

The asteroid entered the solar system about 58000 years ago following a capture by Uranus.

Since then it had countless encounters with Saturn, Jupiter, Mars and Earth.

We should not take the detailed timing and specific past trajectory at face value because the evolution is very chaotic due to close encounters.

However, at least from a qualitative point of view, the results are interesting.

Hilda like Jupiter Resonance

An interesting plot shows the 3:2 resonance with Jupiter:

the “cleanest” capture into a classical (persistent) 3:2 libration looks to happen very late, at about:

$t\approx -0.0065\text{Myr}$ ≈ 6,500 years ago

We can recognize three phases:

• For $t\lesssim -0.03\; Myr\; (left\; side),$$\Phi$ essentially fills $[-180^\circ,180^\circ)$that’s what circulation / strong chaos looks like when wrapped.

• Between roughly $-0.03$ and $-0.007$ Myr, you see intermittent structured bands with repeated wrap hits (temporary resonance episodes).

• After about $-0.0065$ Myr, the trace stops making those ±180° wrap excursions and becomes a bounded oscillation with a much smaller amplitude → that’s the visual hallmark of sustained libration.

Other plots:

(2009 UR125) and 101298 (1998 SE128)

 Mercury6 Integration Parameters

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)

) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)= 2461221.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Results

2010 SX8 and 182385 (2001 QA244)

Mercury6 Integration Parameters

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)

) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)= 2461221.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Result

2022 TK29 and 474P/Hogan

Mercury6 Backward integration parameters

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)

) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)= 2461000.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Planets:

 MERCURY

 VENUS

 EARTHMOO

 MARS

 JUPITER

 SATURN

 URANUS

 NEPTUNE

 PLUTO

 CERES

 PALLAS

 VESTA

 Mercury6 Backward integration results

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

(612288) 2001 TA253 and P/2024 R3

Minor Planet Ephemeris Service: Query Results

(612288) 2001 TA253

Based on 5-opp elements from MPO 892206.

Date       UT      R.A. (J2000) Decl.    Delta     r      El.    Ph.   V

2025 11 21 000000  07 59 52.7 +37 38 25  2.862   3.494  122.5  13.8  22.9

P/2024 R3 (PANSTARRS)

Based on elements from MPEC 2024-X74.

Date       UT      R.A. (J2000) Decl.    Delta     r      El.    Ph.   m1

2025 11 21 000000  08 34 35.7 +36 02 49  2.967   3.508  115.5  14.7  22.8

Orbital parameters integrated at the same epoch

OBJECT               a        e         i        peri      node     long
(612288) 2001 TA253  3.20298  0.268006  14.5865  305.3757  31.9040  337.2797
P/2024 R3            3.20291  0.267791  14.7029  309.5125  33.1242  342.6367

State Vectors (AU, AU/day):
(612288)  X:-0.6169  Y: 3.3393  Z: 0.8225   VX:-0.00867  VY: 0.00040  VZ: 0.00128
P/2024 R3 X:-0.9829  Y: 3.2561  Z: 0.8565   VX:-0.00864  VY:-0.00053  VZ: 0.00112

Mercury 6 - Backward integration

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)

) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)= 2461000.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Kind Regards,

Alessandro Odasso

P/2025 D3 (PANSTARRS)

 

P/2025 D3 (PANSTARRS) - see also this minor planet center link and jpl horizons link. 

Currently in the Hilda region, according to a backward Mercury6 simulation done using the current orbital parameters, it might have entered the solar system 200K years ago (high uncertainty, yet comet origin very likely). 

Orbit "unstable" and very much influenced by Jupiter (last close encounter occurred on Dec 23rd, 2021).

Plots

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

2001 SD365 and (340076) 2005 WX6

Based on nominal orbital parameters, this is the result of a backward integration performed with Mercury6 (*) Bulirsch–Stoer run with a 0.05-day step, 1e-12 accuracy, and outputs every 100 days, integrating from JD 2461000.5 backward for 100 M days (~0.27 Myr)

(*) Chambers, J.E. 1999, “A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies,”

The following plot shows the relative velocity and distance at the time when the relative velocity was minimum (other previous minima might of course be present but the uncertainty is very high):

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

2016 EF349 and (51498) 2001 FW80

 Based on nominal orbital parameters, this is the result of a backward integration performed with Mercury6 (*) Bulirsch–Stoer run with a 0.05-day step, 1e-12 accuracy, and outputs every 100 days, integrating from JD 2461000.5 backward for 100 M days (~0.27 Myr)

(*) Chambers, J.E. 1999, “A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies,”

The following plot shows the relative velocity and distance following the time when the relative velocity was minimum (other previous minima might of course be present but the uncertainty is very high):

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

2014 QS487 and (48514) 1993 FN22

Based on nominal orbital parameters, this is the result of a backward integration performed with Mercury6 (*) Bulirsch–Stoer run with a 0.05-day step, 1e-12 accuracy, and outputs every 100 days, integrating from JD 2461000.5 backward for 100 M days (~0.27 Myr)

(*) Chambers, J.E. 1999, “A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies,”

The following plot shows the relative velocity and distance following the time when the relative velocity was minimum:

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

(47162) Chicomendez = 1998 HS85 = 1999 TH6 and 2008 EA177

Potentially interesting couple:

2021 KT21 and 2004 GZ13

Backward simulation performed with Mercury6 ``A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies''. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol 304, pp793-799. 

Simulation based on nominal orbital paramters (21st March 2024)

Simulation parameters

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)

) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)= 2460309.50000 

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Simulation Result

Following a comment from Adrien Coffinet, here is a forward simulation to show that as correctly guessed, the two asteroids might be again in a similar orbital configuration about 20K years from now:

2023 SP50 and 152737 (1998 WF28)

 Backward simulation

Mercury6 package by J.E.Chambers (1999) ``A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies''. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol 304, pp793-799. 

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)=  2460106.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Result

2022 QZ273 and 2002 RZ12

Backward simulation

Mercury6 package by J.E.Chambers (1999) ``A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies''. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol 304, pp793-799. 

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)=  2460106.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 1

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Result

2015 TB430 and 1997 YF7

 Interesting couple.

Simulation based on nominal orbital parameters 

Mercury6 software

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)=  2460106.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Simulation result

2023 SV69 and 2001 US116

 Backward integration based on nominal orbit performed with Mercury6 software

358P/PANSTARRS and 292547 (2006 TE55) and 300233 (2006 YX8)

                          a         e        i       om        w        q
  358P/PANSTARRS   3.146644 0.2388745 11.06014 85.70234 299.7696 2.394991
292547 (2006 TE55) 3.140893 0.2428301 11.11777 88.23864 298.1447 2.378189
300233 (2006 YX8)  3.138883 0.2418392 11.21893 87.87625 301.6746 2.379778

Backward simulation done with Mercury 6 

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)=  2460106.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Plots

313P/Gibbs and 2016 JM83

Backward simulation (up to about 300K years ago)

313P/Gibbs and 2016 JM83 have a very similar orbit, they never came very near each other, the two orbits are stable: