2022 TK29 and 474P/Hogan

Mercury6 Backward integration parameters

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)

) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)= 2461000.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Planets:

 MERCURY

 VENUS

 EARTHMOO

 MARS

 JUPITER

 SATURN

 URANUS

 NEPTUNE

 PLUTO

 CERES

 PALLAS

 VESTA

 Mercury6 Backward integration results

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

(612288) 2001 TA253 and P/2024 R3

Minor Planet Ephemeris Service: Query Results

(612288) 2001 TA253

Based on 5-opp elements from MPO 892206.

Date       UT      R.A. (J2000) Decl.    Delta     r      El.    Ph.   V

2025 11 21 000000  07 59 52.7 +37 38 25  2.862   3.494  122.5  13.8  22.9

P/2024 R3 (PANSTARRS)

Based on elements from MPEC 2024-X74.

Date       UT      R.A. (J2000) Decl.    Delta     r      El.    Ph.   m1

2025 11 21 000000  08 34 35.7 +36 02 49  2.967   3.508  115.5  14.7  22.8

Orbital parameters integrated at the same epoch

OBJECT               a        e         i        peri      node     long
(612288) 2001 TA253  3.20298  0.268006  14.5865  305.3757  31.9040  337.2797
P/2024 R3            3.20291  0.267791  14.7029  309.5125  33.1242  342.6367

State Vectors (AU, AU/day):
(612288)  X:-0.6169  Y: 3.3393  Z: 0.8225   VX:-0.00867  VY: 0.00040  VZ: 0.00128
P/2024 R3 X:-0.9829  Y: 3.2561  Z: 0.8565   VX:-0.00864  VY:-0.00053  VZ: 0.00112

Mercury 6 - Backward integration

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)

) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)= 2461000.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Kind Regards,

Alessandro Odasso

P/2025 D3 (PANSTARRS)

 

P/2025 D3 (PANSTARRS) - see also this minor planet center link and jpl horizons link. 

Currently in the Hilda region, according to a backward Mercury6 simulation done using the current orbital parameters, it might have entered the solar system 200K years ago (high uncertainty, yet comet origin very likely). 

Orbit "unstable" and very much influenced by Jupiter (last close encounter occurred on Dec 23rd, 2021).

Plots

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

2001 SD365 and (340076) 2005 WX6

Based on nominal orbital parameters, this is the result of a backward integration performed with Mercury6 (*) Bulirsch–Stoer run with a 0.05-day step, 1e-12 accuracy, and outputs every 100 days, integrating from JD 2461000.5 backward for 100 M days (~0.27 Myr)

(*) Chambers, J.E. 1999, “A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies,”

The following plot shows the relative velocity and distance at the time when the relative velocity was minimum (other previous minima might of course be present but the uncertainty is very high):

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

2016 EF349 and (51498) 2001 FW80

 Based on nominal orbital parameters, this is the result of a backward integration performed with Mercury6 (*) Bulirsch–Stoer run with a 0.05-day step, 1e-12 accuracy, and outputs every 100 days, integrating from JD 2461000.5 backward for 100 M days (~0.27 Myr)

(*) Chambers, J.E. 1999, “A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies,”

The following plot shows the relative velocity and distance following the time when the relative velocity was minimum (other previous minima might of course be present but the uncertainty is very high):

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

2014 QS487 and (48514) 1993 FN22

Based on nominal orbital parameters, this is the result of a backward integration performed with Mercury6 (*) Bulirsch–Stoer run with a 0.05-day step, 1e-12 accuracy, and outputs every 100 days, integrating from JD 2461000.5 backward for 100 M days (~0.27 Myr)

(*) Chambers, J.E. 1999, “A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies,”

The following plot shows the relative velocity and distance following the time when the relative velocity was minimum:

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso

(47162) Chicomendez = 1998 HS85 = 1999 TH6 and 2008 EA177

Potentially interesting couple:

2021 KT21 and 2004 GZ13

Backward simulation performed with Mercury6 ``A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies''. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol 304, pp793-799. 

Simulation based on nominal orbital paramters (21st March 2024)

Simulation parameters

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)

) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)= 2460309.50000 

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Simulation Result

Following a comment from Adrien Coffinet, here is a forward simulation to show that as correctly guessed, the two asteroids might be again in a similar orbital configuration about 20K years from now:

2023 SP50 and 152737 (1998 WF28)

 Backward simulation

Mercury6 package by J.E.Chambers (1999) ``A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies''. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol 304, pp793-799. 

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)=  2460106.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Result

2022 QZ273 and 2002 RZ12

Backward simulation

Mercury6 package by J.E.Chambers (1999) ``A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies''. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol 304, pp793-799. 

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)=  2460106.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 1

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Result

2015 TB430 and 1997 YF7

 Interesting couple.

Simulation based on nominal orbital parameters 

Mercury6 software

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)=  2460106.5

) stop time (days) = 102458000.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Simulation result

2023 SV69 and 2001 US116

 Backward integration based on nominal orbit performed with Mercury6 software

358P/PANSTARRS and 292547 (2006 TE55) and 300233 (2006 YX8)

                          a         e        i       om        w        q
  358P/PANSTARRS   3.146644 0.2388745 11.06014 85.70234 299.7696 2.394991
292547 (2006 TE55) 3.140893 0.2428301 11.11777 88.23864 298.1447 2.378189
300233 (2006 YX8)  3.138883 0.2418392 11.21893 87.87625 301.6746 2.379778

Backward simulation done with Mercury 6 

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

) Important integration parameters:

)---------------------------------------------------------------------

 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS

 start time (days)=  2460106.5

 stop time (days) = -1e8

 output interval (days) = 100

 timestep (days) = 0.05

 accuracy parameter=1.d-12

Plots

313P/Gibbs and 2016 JM83

Backward simulation (up to about 300K years ago)

313P/Gibbs and 2016 JM83 have a very similar orbit, they never came very near each other, the two orbits are stable:

2015 BN494 and 2008 BY42

 Backward integration with Mercury6 software, integrator Bulirsch-Stoer, output every 100 days

(395103) = 2009 RA8 -- Cometary Origin ?

 Is this a quasi-Hilda object?

Clone Generation

100 clones were generated in order to have the same orbital paameters and uncertainty as the nominal asteroid

	Clones			Target
	mean	sd		mean	sd
q	3.61245270083945	3.39064109921033e-07		3.61245264912673	3.4136e-07
e	0.129667339794439	8.11352970562344e-08		0.12966735411561	8.0309e-08
i	8.9645643748396	9.73657795759391e-06		8.96456457281582	9.6087e-06
peri	344.487704195712	4.69757841212335e-05		344.487707120445	4.6654e-05
node	359.469501444993	3.82226393976073e-05		359.469498781976	3.8729e-05
tp	2461090.03289397	0.000262107424207425		2461090.03290289	0.00026503

Backward Simulation

This was performed using Mercury Integrator Package Version 6 - Bulirsch-Stoer N-body algorithm - 10^8 days in the past - output every 100 days

66% of the clones entered the solar system from a distance greater than 100 AU (i.e. from the point of view of the backward simulation they were "ejected")

Hungaria - 2010 MA151 and 2017 BD92

 Backward simulation with Mercury6 (integrator BS, output every 100 days)

2005 UW252 and 2008 SO356

 Backward simulation based on nominal orbital parameters (Mercury6 simulator, BS integrator, output every 100 days):

2015 HB287 and 434936

Peter VanWylen noticed that these two asteroids stay very close to each other in the sky for many decades. He wondered whether they have  a common (recent) origin or it is a coincidence.

I run a Mercury6 simulation (output every 1 days) based on nominal parameters, while this is not a proof I think that the idea of a common origin should not be disregarded.

405222 (2003 RV20) and 2010 TH35

 Interesting couple, common origin?