astro: C/2014 OG392 - about its cometary origin

A coma was recently detected as far as 400,000 km from centaur 2014 OG392 by NAU researchers (click here to access their paper).

Following this discovery, the centaur was given a comet designation: C/2014 OG392

C/2014 OG392 (PANSTARRS)

Classification: Chiron-type Comet SPK-ID: 1003735

[ Ephemeris | Orbit Diagram | Orbital Elements | Mission Design | Physical Parameters ]

[ show orbit diagram ]

Orbital Elements at Epoch 2457785.5 (2017-Feb-01.0) TDB
Reference: JPL 14 (heliocentric ecliptic J2000)

Element	Value	Uncertainty (1-sigma)	Units
e	.1804389828275273	7.4417e-06
a	12.150254615787	0.00018697	au
q	9.957875031818922	6.704e-05	au
i	9.046144236347711	4.6644e-05	deg
node	145.8645384329216	0.00015579	deg
peri	254.7881434680575	0.0027215	deg
M	318.4435044274125	0.0027357	deg
t_p	2459571.218143409214 (2021-Dec-22.71814341)	0.076746	TDB
period	15469.50778138701 42.35	0.35708 0.0009776	d yr
n	.0232715872468259	5.3717e-07	deg/d
Q	14.34263419975507	0.00022071	au

Orbit Determination Parameters

# obs. used (total)	213
data-arc span	3371 days (9.23 yr)
first obs. used	2011-07-27
last obs. used	2020-10-18
planetary ephem.	DE431
SB-pert. ephem.	SB431-N16
condition code	3
norm. resid. RMS	.22122
source	ORB
producer	Otto Matic
solution date	2020-Oct-26 19:43:48

Additional Information

Earth MOID = 8.97742 au

Jupiter MOID = 5.06363 au

T_jup = 3.397

I tried to investigate the cometary nature running a backward integration using Mercury6 software by E. Chambers.

I generated 100 clones trying to achieve the same nominal orbital parameters and uncertainty as above.

	Clones		Target
	mean	sd	mean	sd
q	9.95787410878	6.694624e-05	9.95787503182	6.704e-05
e	0.18043892764	7.50991e-06	0.18043898283	7.4417e-06
i	9.04614599334	4.699782e-05	9.04614423635	4.6644e-05
peri	254.78819470552	0.00271470415	254.78814346806	0.0027215
node	145.86454031167	0.0001548109	145.86453843292	0.00015579
tp	2459571.21974672	0.07635106812	2459571.21814341	0.076746

Simulation parameters

integration algorithm: Bulirsch-Stoer

ejection distance from the solar system: 100 au

simulation start time: 2020 A.D.

simulation stop time: -1d8 (about -274K years BC)

Simulation results

A "true" cometary origin is confirmed for 29 clones, in fact, they entered the solar system from a distance greater than 100 au according to this arrival time distribution

In order to read the following plots, you need to know that:

the simulated time is divided into 50 intervals , in every interval and for every clone I have calculated the min perihelium and then I have plotted the interquantile distribution in that interval.

Similar approach for max aphelium, max eccentricity, ... etc.

Perihelium q