astro: 2011 YO17 - Cometary Origin?

2011 YO17 - Backward simulation

Simulation based on 100 clones:

	Clones		Target
	mean	sd	mean	sd
q	3.3457192543808	2.89972813116376e-07	3.34571929768682	2.8751e-07
e	0.184121058387053	7.17001427077198e-08	0.184121045157645	7.1351e-08
i	18.249168025204	9.19753172889254e-06	18.2491686171502	9.2211e-06
peri	165.624322571055	3.52571408153806e-05	165.624319088164	3.5024e-05
node	302.902335551023	2.30225190945596e-05	302.902339849507	2.2893e-05
tp	2458883.14050519	0.000193613119572893	2458883.14050091	0.00019246

the table above shows the orbital parameters distribution of the clones in comparison with the nominal (target) solution.

Simulation method

Mercury Integrator Package Version 6 by J. E. Chambers

)---------------------------------------------------------------------
) Important integration parameters:
)---------------------------------------------------------------------
algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS
start time (days)= 2459600.5
) stop time (days) = 102458000.5
stop time (days) = -1d8
output interval (days) = 100
timestep (days) = 0.05
accuracy parameter=1.d-12

...

ejection distance (AU)= 100

If a clone comes into the solar system from a distance greater than 100 AU, it is considered to have a cometary origin.

Simulation Results

73 out of 100 clones have a cometary origin:

In the following plots, the time has been divided into 50 slots and it is shown vertically for graphical reasons.

The 27 clones that did not come from a distance greater than 100 AU are flagged as being on an asteroid-like orbit, while the other are considered to be on a cometary-like orbit (the more you look in the past, the less clones are found because they were "ejected" in the backward simulation).

Perihelium