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Saturday, August 27, 2022

Asteroid 2006 XL5 - likely cometary origin

The orbits of asteroid 2006 XL5 and comet 75D/Kohoutek are vaguely similar:

                        a         e        i       om        w       q
       (2006 XL5) 3.723259 0.5154009 4.526352 274.0060 175.1221   1.804288
   75D/Kohoutek   3.543147 0.4963074 5.907209 269.6861 175.8017   1.784657

It is not clear to me if asteroid 2006 XL5 with a diameter about 1.6 km might be an old fragment of the lost comet that was estimated to be about 4.6 km in diameter.

I tried a backward simulation but there is no clear indication that this is the case.

What is interesting is that 2006 XL5 might have a cometary origin itself (the MOID with jupiter is about 0.16 AU).


Clones generation

I generated 100 clones of asteroid 2006 XL5 trying to achieve the same mean orbital parameters (and uncertainty).


Clones  2006 XL5

mean sd   mean sd
q 1.80428798284277 5.24177295141045e-07   1.80428796355464 5.2592e-07
e 0.515400864913161 1.29060036714178e-07   0.515400869129902 1.2918e-07
i 4.52635127581998 7.48101264185302e-06   4.52635163398884 7.4744e-06
peri 175.122110003296 0.000109392746353213   175.122116165405 0.00010898
node 274.006039830699 9.87233639993821e-05   274.006030101048 9.8249e-05
tp 2459319.93402565 0.000249555965707767   2459319.93400848 0.00024939

 

Backward simulation config parameters

Mercury6 software - package version 6 by John E. Chambers

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)
) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.
)---------------------------------------------------------------------
) Important integration parameters:
)---------------------------------------------------------------------
 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS
 start time (days)= 2459806.5
 stop time (days) = -1d8
 output interval (days) = 100
 timestep (days) = 0.05
 accuracy parameter=1.d-12
...

 ejection distance (AU)= 100

based on this configuration, any clone coming into the solar system from a distance greater than 100 AU is considered to have a "cometary origin".


Simulation results

75% of the clones have a cometary origin


 ddd

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