Following this message from Adrian Coffinet, I tried a backward simulation based on the current nominal orbital parameters.
The result seems to confirm that these two Hungarians might have a common origin:
Thursday, June 23, 2022
Monday, May 16, 2022
2015 EN80 and 2017 XP90
These two asteroids share a very similar orbit and they have a very similar absolute magnitude and size (assuming 10% albedo, their size is 1102 and 1180 meters respectively)
Orbital elements: 2015 EN80 Perihelion 2021 Jun 24.35763 +/- 0.00111 TT = 8:34:58 (JD 2459389.85763) Epoch 2022 Mar 23.0 TT = JDT 2459661.5 Auto-Find M 66.70829243 +/- 0.00027 (J2000 ecliptic) n 0.24557395 +/- 5.89e-9 Peri. 282.14566 +/- 0.00019 a 2.52550274 +/- 4.04e-8 Node 98.81297 +/- 0.00006 e 0.1644376 +/- 1.73e-6 Incl. 16.06226 +/- 0.000033 P 4.01 H 17.9 G 0.15 U 0.8 q 2.11021511 +/- 4.37e-6 Q 2.94079038 +/- 4.35e-6 From 46 observations 2005 Dec. 24-2022 Mar. 23; mean residual 0".33
Orbital elements: 2017 XP90 Perihelion 2021 Jun 26.30182 +/- 0.00152 TT = 7:14:37 (JD 2459391.80182) Epoch 2022 Jan 6.0 TT = JDT 2459585.5 Auto-Find M 47.57079914 +/- 0.00037 (J2000 ecliptic) n 0.24559239 +/- 6.59e-9 Peri. 282.12973 +/- 0.00025 a 2.52537634 +/- 4.52e-8 Node 98.81216 +/- 0.000059 e 0.1644239 +/- 2.44e-6 Incl. 16.06218 +/- 0.000028 P 4.01 H 17.8 G 0.15 U 0.9 q 2.11014391 +/- 6.17e-6 Q 2.94060878 +/- 6.12e-6 From 45 observations 2006 Jan. 23-2022 Jan. 6; mean residual 0".21
Based on the nominal parameters, they might have a potential common origin:
Friday, May 13, 2022
2021 CC40 - cometary origin ?
Its orbit has a Jupiter moid = 0.0060 AU
I generated 100 clones of 2021 CC40 in the last 10^8 days (i.e. from now back to about 280K years ago).
75 clones came into the solar system from a distance greater than 100 AU
From this point of view, it seems that 2021 CC40 is a good candidate for having a cometary origin.
More details here:
Clones Generation
| Clones | Target | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mean | sd | mean | sd | ||
| q | 3.25399802390041 | 7.03707449970568e-05 | 3.25400084057019 | 7.0403e-05 | |
| e | 0.241134331789963 | 1.59398555200895e-05 | 0.241133698559336 | 1.5947e-05 | |
| i | 12.9796232392302 | 6.18646863798976e-05 | 12.9796210051976 | 6.1886e-05 | |
| peri | 328.501490543462 | 0.00855370237432572 | 328.501160286746 | 0.008554 | |
| node | 235.614402285421 | 0.000361242956610133 | 235.61440679467 | 0.00036124 | |
| tp | 2459672.09000109 | 0.0444299088063099 | 2459672.08824673 | 0.044429 | |
Mercury6 Simulation
)O+_06 Integration parameters (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!) ) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored. )--------------------------------------------------------------------- ) Important integration parameters: )--------------------------------------------------------------------- algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS start time (days)= 2459671.5 ) stop time (days) = 102458000.5 stop time (days) = -1d8 output interval (days) = 100 timestep (days) = 0.05 accuracy parameter=1.d-12
...
ejection distance (AU)= 100
Results
Tuesday, April 5, 2022
2022 GC and 2022 GQ - The effect of close encounter with Earth and Mars
See thread initiated by Marco di Lorenzo about these two objects.
On March 31th / April 1st, these two asteroids had a close encounter with Earth (about 0.00034 AU).
Here you can see a few graphs showing the variation of their orbital parameters:
Monday, March 7, 2022
188218 (2002 TK46) and (2015 VZ9)
These two asteroids might have a common origin:
As noticed by Adrien Coffinet (see MPML message), the above plot is based on the nominal parameters but there is a high uncertainty regarding 2015 VZ9.
We have to wait for more observations.
In the meantime, in order to better characterize this aspect, I generated 100 clones of 2015 VZ9 and I plotted the min relative velocity (and related distance).
Disregarding a couple of extreme outliers, I got this plot:
This shows the spread, while not all clones are interesting, there are about 30% of the clones that have relative velocity less than 1 m/s and a distance less than 1 LD.
Cheers,
Alessandro Odasso
Friday, March 4, 2022
Wednesday, February 23, 2022
2009 PZ21 - Cometary orgin?
Clones generation
| Clones | Target | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mean | sd | mean | sd | ||
| q | 3.85914782817777 | 2.37290442662423e-07 | 3.85914783140272 | 2.3537e-07 | |
| e | 0.0801406801559403 | 6.09227507904535e-08 | 0.0801406839559804 | 6.2114e-08 | |
| i | 17.137419366797 | 6.36351406517114e-06 | 17.137419930196 | 6.2706e-06 | |
| peri | 320.523142499568 | 5.99473078348146e-05 | 320.523140865999 | 5.9474e-05 | |
| node | 307.443365230246 | 2.42363482614464e-05 | 307.443369025924 | 2.384e-05 | |
| tp | 2460899.33667196 | 0.000556445464595854 | 2460899.33668632 | 0.0005656 | |
100 clones were generated to match the nominal orbital parameters (and uncertainty) of asteroid 2009 PZ21 (orbit condition code 0 - last observed in Feb 2022).
Backward simulation
Mercury 6 parameters:
)O+_06 Integration parameters (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)
) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.
)---------------------------------------------------------------------
) Important integration parameters:
)---------------------------------------------------------------------
algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS
start time (days)= 2459600.5
stop time (days) = -1d8
output interval (days) = 100
timestep (days) = 0.05
accuracy parameter=1.d-12 ... ejection distance (AU)= 100
Simulation results
- 82 out of 100 clones arrived into the solar system from a distance greater than 100 AU, most of them about 54000 years ago (below they are flagged as being on a 'comet-like orbit')
- the remaining 18 out of 100 asteroids are flagged as being on an 'asteroid-like' orbit
Plots
In the following plots, the simulation time has been divided into 50 slots and the relevant orbital inter-quartile distribution of the contributing clones is shown:
Best wishes,
Alessandro Odasso
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