According to https://astro.troja.mff.cuni.cz/davok/papers/clusters_Icarus2018.pdf
, asteroid 2016 TW15 is a probable member of the Datura cluster.
Asteroids 2018 TM7 and 2016 TW15 have similar orbital parameters, so one can wonder whether they are related as well.
Using a similar approach as described in the previous post, I got the following preliminary results.
Horizons Web-Interface
[ Ephemeris | Orbit Diagram | Orbital Elements | Mission Design | Physical Parameters ] |
[ show orbit diagram ]
Orbital Elements at Epoch 2458600.5 (2019-Apr-27.0) TDB Reference: JPL 2 (heliocentric ecliptic J2000)
| Orbit Determination Parameters
Additional Information
|
(2018 TM7) |
Classification: Main-belt Asteroid SPK-ID: 3835925 |
[ Ephemeris | Orbit Diagram | Orbital Elements | Mission Design | Physical Parameters ] |
[ show orbit diagram ]
Orbital Elements at Epoch 2458600.5 (2019-Apr-27.0) TDB Reference: JPL 3 (heliocentric ecliptic J2000)
| Orbit Determination Parameters
Additional Information
|
(2016 TW15) |
Classification: Main-belt Asteroid SPK-ID: 3760646 |
Clone generation
100 clones were generated for both asteroids, trying to achieve the same orbital parameters and uncertainty as above:
summary_2018+TM7
Clones | Target | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
mean | sd | mean | sd | ||
q | 1.77165498 | 1.294e-05 | 1.77165441 | 1.297e-05 | |
e | 0.20732936 | 3.84e-06 | 0.2073299 | 3.84e-06 | |
i | 5.99011663 | 4.722e-05 | 5.99011721 | 4.727e-05 | |
peri | 259.41529374 | 0.00321844 | 259.41458092 | 0.0032119 | |
node | 97.82537494 | 0.00053868 | 97.82547015 | 0.00054111 | |
tp | 2458366.60704583 | 0.00589821 | 2458366.60571143 | 0.0058977 |
summary_2016+TW15
Clones | Target | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
mean | sd | mean | sd | ||
q | 1.77183536 | 0.00014688 | 1.77183789 | 0.00014694 | |
e | 0.20745945 | 6.28e-05 | 0.20744832 | 6.276e-05 | |
i | 5.99162255 | 0.00042743 | 5.99160467 | 0.00042723 | |
peri | 260.11780583 | 0.05113712 | 260.12469674 | 0.051079 | |
node | 97.16314414 | 0.00565394 | 97.16207427 | 0.0056502 | |
tp | 2458854.62514345 | 0.18310294 | 2458854.64875846 | 0.18292 |
Simulation results
I analyzed the 10000 clones pairs searching for the time when every pair had the minimum distance (registering the relative velocity as well).
Of course every pair is different and we can get a feel of variations looking at the following plots:
Best Clone Couple
About 30% of the clone pairs reached a minimum distance below 1 Lunar Distance.
The best one made far better as you can see here:
Kind Regards,
Alessandro Odasso
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