On 03-12-2020 I asked to MPML group (see message) whether the following asteroids can be considered a cluster considering their orbit similarity:
(4765) Wasserburg
350716 (2001 XO105)
2017 DU131
2020 HF21
2016 GL253
2012 KH56
Petr Pravec kindly answered that (4765) Wasserburg and 350716 (2001 XO105) consitute an asteroid pair and that also 2016 GL253 is very close to the pair. Those three asteroids are likely to be a cluster but a final confirmation awaits for backward orbit integrations after a better orbit is derived for 2016 GL253.
So, out of curiosity, I tried a backward integration considering the nominal orbits derived from the Horizons Web Interface disregarding any non gravitational effects and, of course, with no certainty about the correctness of what follows!
Integration parameters
The backward integration has been performed with Mercury6 software by J.E. Chambers.
)O+_06 Integration parameters (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)
) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.
)---------------------------------------------------------------------
) Important integration parameters:
)---------------------------------------------------------------------
algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS
start time (days)= 2459167.50000
stop time (days) = -1d8
output interval (days) = 100
timestep (days) = 0.05
accuracy parameter=1.d-12
Results
I considered all the possible 15 asteroid combinations
Possible combinations
| N | asteroid1 | asteroid2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2017 DU131 | 2016 GL253 |
| 2 | 2017 DU131 | 2020 HF21 |
| 3 | 2017 DU131 | 2012 KH56 |
| 4 | 2017 DU131 | (4765) Wasserburg |
| 5 | 2017 DU131 | 350716 (2001 XO105) |
| 6 | 2016 GL253 | 2020 HF21 |
| 7 | 2016 GL253 | 2012 KH56 |
| 8 | 2016 GL253 | (4765) Wasserburg |
| 9 | 2016 GL253 | 350716 (2001 XO105) |
| 10 | 2020 HF21 | 2012 KH56 |
| 11 | 2020 HF21 | (4765) Wasserburg |
| 12 | 2020 HF21 | 350716 (2001 XO105) |
| 13 | 2012 KH56 | (4765) Wasserburg |
| 14 | 2012 KH56 | 350716 (2001 XO105) |
| 15 | (4765) Wasserburg | 350716 (2001 XO105) |
Same table as above sorted by velocity (AU/Day), distance (AU) at the time of the minimum distance:
| asteroid1 | asteroid2 | distance | velocity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 HF21 | 350716 (2001 XO105) | 2.84e-05 | 1.86e-07 | |
| 2017 DU131 | 350716 (2001 XO105) | 4.1e-05 | 3.89e-07 | |
| 2017 DU131 | 2020 HF21 | 0.000109 | 4.65e-07 | |
| 2020 HF21 | 2012 KH56 | 0.000123 | 7.24e-07 | |
| 2017 DU131 | 2012 KH56 | 1.63e-05 | 1.17e-06 | |
| 2017 DU131 | 2016 GL253 | 7.76e-05 | 1.49e-06 | |
| 2016 GL253 | (4765) Wasserburg | 8.75e-05 | 1.52e-06 | |
| 2016 GL253 | 2012 KH56 | 0.000123 | 1.79e-06 | |
| 2012 KH56 | (4765) Wasserburg | 0.000166 | 2.1e-06 | |
| 2016 GL253 | 2020 HF21 | 9.89e-05 | 2.45e-06 | |
| 2017 DU131 | (4765) Wasserburg | 0.00017 | 3.43e-06 | |
| 2020 HF21 | (4765) Wasserburg | 0.000109 | 3.92e-06 | |
| 2012 KH56 | 350716 (2001 XO105) | 6.79e-05 | 4.52e-06 | |
| (4765) Wasserburg | 350716 (2001 XO105) | 7.89e-05 | 4.52e-06 | |
| 2016 GL253 | 350716 (2001 XO105) | 0.926 | 0.00556 |
Here you can see the plots showing their relative distance in AU (and velocity in AU/day)
Alessandro Odasso
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