2009 PZ21 - Cometary orgin?

 Clones generation

	Clones			Target
	mean	sd		mean	sd
q	3.85914782817777	2.37290442662423e-07		3.85914783140272	2.3537e-07
e	0.0801406801559403	6.09227507904535e-08		0.0801406839559804	6.2114e-08
i	17.137419366797	6.36351406517114e-06		17.137419930196	6.2706e-06
peri	320.523142499568	5.99473078348146e-05		320.523140865999	5.9474e-05
node	307.443365230246	2.42363482614464e-05		307.443369025924	2.384e-05
tp	2460899.33667196	0.000556445464595854		2460899.33668632	0.0005656

100 clones were generated to match the nominal orbital parameters (and uncertainty) of asteroid 2009 PZ21 (orbit condition code 0 - last observed in Feb 2022).

 

Backward simulation

Mercury 6 parameters:

)O+_06 Integration parameters  (WARNING: Do not delete this line!!)
) Lines beginning with `)' are ignored.
)---------------------------------------------------------------------
) Important integration parameters:
)---------------------------------------------------------------------
 algorithm (MVS, BS, BS2, RADAU, HYBRID etc) = BS
 start time (days)= 2459600.5
 stop time (days) = -1d8
 output interval (days) = 100
 timestep (days) = 0.05
 accuracy parameter=1.d-12 

...

 ejection distance (AU)= 100
 

Simulation results

 

• 82 out of 100 clones arrived into the solar system from a distance greater than 100 AU, most of them about 54000 years ago (below they are flagged as being on a 'comet-like orbit')
• the remaining 18 out of 100 asteroids are flagged as being on an 'asteroid-like' orbit
  

Plots

In the following plots, the simulation time has been divided into 50 slots and the relevant orbital inter-quartile distribution of the contributing clones is shown:

Best wishes,

Alessandro Odasso