a compact pairwise cluster: 2014 DC113, 2019 CV15, 2003 CL11

 These three objects have very similar orbits:

•   2014 DC113
•   2019 CV15
•   267721 (2003 CL11)

Nominal backward integrations (Rebound IAS15 with big planets + Ceres/Pallas/Vesta) suggest close pairwise convergence epochs, as shown in the pairwise plots:

pair 2014 DC113 and 2019 CV15

pair 2003 CL11 and 2014 DC113

pair 2003 CL11 and 2019 CV15

To check whether these are only nominal-orbit coincidences, I also propagated 30 covariance clones plus nominal and inspected the corresponding pairwise clone boxplots:

cross_pair_dc113_cv15_31x31

cross_pair_cl11_dc113_31x31

cross_pair_cl11_cv15_31x31

For these 31 x 31 clone-pair tests, the boxplot summaries are approximately:

  Each boxplot is evaluated at the refined time, inside the corresponding

  pairwise time window, that minimizes the median distance over the 31 x 31

  clone-pair combinations.

  2014 DC113 - 2019 CV15:

    median distance 150000 km; median relative velocity 10.4 m/s

    4.1% of clone pairs below 10000 km and 1 m/s

    36.6% below 100000 km and 10 m/s

  2003 CL11 - 2014 DC113:

    median distance 89000 km; median relative velocity 6.1 m/s

    2.6% of clone pairs below 10000 km and 1 m/s

    55.5% below 100000 km and 10 m/s

  2003 CL11 - 2019 CV15:

    median distance 217000 km; median relative velocity 15.2 m/s

    1.7% of clone pairs below 10000 km and 1 m/s

    26.7% below 100000 km and 10 m/s

The clone results appear to preserve a non-negligible pairwise signal.

In particular, the 2003 CL11 - 2014 DC113 pair gives the most compact median clone convergence in this preliminary test, while 2014 DC113 - 2019 CV15 also remains interesting. 

The 2003 CL11 - 2019 CV15 pair is weaker, but not obviously irrelevant.

However, an attempt to make all three clone clouds converge simultaneously in the three time windows suggested by the pairwise plots was not successful. In that test, the three-body cluster diameter remained extremely large, as summarized in:

cross_dc113_cv15_cl11_31x31x31

In the 31 x 31 x 31 triple-clone test, the median three-body diameters in the three pairwise windows were about 33, 23, and 70 million km, respectively. No clone triple was below 1 million km in diameter, and no clone triple had maximum internal relative velocity below 10 m/s.

One possible interpretation, offered only as a working hypothesis, is not a simultaneous three-body breakup but a sequential fragmentation history. For example, an older progenitor may have split into 2003 CL11 and an intermediate progenitor, followed later by a split of that intermediate progenitor into 2014 DC113 and 2019 CV15. The pairwise clone behaviour seems at least compatible with such a scenario.

I emphasize that this is only a preliminary flag. The analysis needs independent validation before any physical conclusion can be drawn. I am sharing this mainly because the pairwise clone results suggest that the similarity may deserve closer scrutiny rather than being dismissed immediately as a purely nominal coincidence.

Best regards,

Alessandro Odasso