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Monday, August 3, 2026

2017 VQ75 and 259711 (2003 YL54)

This is a potentially interesting couple.


100 clones + nominals, searching for the time when median relative velocity was lowest


Looking at the time when the median relative velocity was lowest, we can look at its distribution (together with asteroid distance at the same time:



Run setup:

- Pair mode, 100 covariance clones per target plus nominal.

- 101 samples per target, 10,201 sample cross-combinations.

- Analysis epoch: JD 2461000.5.

- Objective: minimize median velocity.

- Nominal sample source: covariance.

- Integrator: REBOUND IAS15 in AU-yr-Msun, initial dt 0.3652564 day (0.001 yr), default IAS15 epsilon.

- Massive bodies: Sun; Mercury, Venus, Earth-Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto barycenters; Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta.

- Test particles: all nominal/covariance-clone samples for the 2 targets; clones are massless and do not perturb the massive bodies or each other.


Window window_1:

- Window center: 9687.860000 yr before analysis epoch.

- Selected best time: 9892.314224 yr before analysis epoch.

- Selected-time JD: -1152230.581058.

- Median relative velocity at selected time: 2.257536 m/s.

- Median distance at selected time: 44,283.075 km.


Distance distribution at selected time:

- Minimum combination at selected time: 2,700.492 km.

- p05 / p16: 4,837.868 / 12,423.673 km.

- Median / p84 / p95: 44,283.075 / 101,901.503 / 138,618.078 km.

- Max: 270,219.283 km.

- Nominal at selected time: 17,529.654 km.

- Fractions below thresholds: 12.49% < 10,000 km; 83.24% < 100,000 km; 100.00% < 1,000,000 km.


Relative-velocity distribution at selected time:

- Minimum combination at selected time: 0.057856 m/s.

- p05 / p16: 0.211032 / 0.627504 m/s.

- Median / p84 / p95: 2.257536 / 5.200980 / 7.098886 m/s.

- Max: 13.758033 m/s.

- Nominal at selected time: 0.814142 m/s.

- Fractions below thresholds: 25.23% < 1 m/s; 99.18% < 10 m/s.


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