For this reason, I am not sure that a backward simulation can be useful to get an idea of the asteroid behaviour.
Probably not .. .but just for curiosity let's do it and let's assume for a moment that 2020 CD3 is a natural object.
I generated 100 clones trying to achieve the "same" orbital parameters and sigma as provided by the JPL solution (Horizons Web Interface)
| Clones | Target | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mean | sd | mean | sd | ||
| q | 1.00502954166 | 2.714862e-05 | 1.00503150094 | 2.7143e-05 | |
| e | 0.01726251622 | 2.418728e-05 | 0.01726090999 | 2.4152e-05 | |
| i | 0.6401240941 | 0.00012806312 | 0.64011545932 | 0.0001279 | |
| peri | 46.79953402529 | 0.09813338369 | 46.79424491192 | 0.098245 | |
| node | 83.09078802026 | 0.05641077311 | 83.08730279228 | 0.056433 | |
| tp | 2458877.63623114 | 0.04030051738 | 2458877.6339221 | 0.040361 | |
I gave a look at close encounters with other planets a part Eeath-Moon itself.
It seems that in order to see these hypothetical close encounters we need to go back many centuries.
I found that these encounters are more likely and more recent with Venus rather than Mars.
Could this be a hint that the origin of this object is from the inner part of the solar system?
Alessandro Odasso
