astro: Asteroid 2016 BS30 = 2010 HD50

Horizon Web data
(2016 BS30)

Classification: Outer Main-belt Asteroid SPK-ID: 3743356

Orbital Elements at Epoch 2458200.5 (2018-Mar-23.0) TDB
Reference: JPL 9 (heliocentric ecliptic J2000)

Element	Value	Uncertainty (1-sigma)	Units
e	.3478863638049197	7.7899e-07
a	3.820502999526835	7.8608e-07	au
q	2.491402103115656	3.4304e-06	au
i	11.67728524676726	7.6434e-05	deg
node	326.2245320214484	9.1269e-05	deg
peri	245.4466373090264	0.00026973	deg
M	60.18000341810182	0.00025871	deg
t_p	2457744.537683238532 (2016-Dec-22.03768324)	0.0018283	JED
period	2727.590972265617 7.47	0.00084182 2.305e-06	d yr
n	.1319845987395147	4.0734e-08	deg/d
Q	5.149603895938015	1.0596e-06	au

Orbit Determination Parameters

# obs. used (total)	54
data-arc span	4641 days (12.71 yr)
first obs. used	2003-08-26
last obs. used	2016-05-10
planetary ephem.	DE431
SB-pert. ephem.	SB431-N16
condition code	1
fit RMS	.55107
data source	ORB
producer	Otto Matic
solution date	2018-Jul-09 06:23:30

Additional Information

Earth MOID = 1.51491 au

Jupiter MOID = .65024 au

T_jup = 2.935

Clones generation

I generated 100 clones trying to achieve the same orbital parameter distribution as shown above (mean and sigma).

This is a table comparing what has been achieved versus the target:

	clones_mean	clones_sd	target_mean	target_sd
q	2.4914019	0.0000034	2.4914021	0.0000034
e	0.3478864	0.0000008	0.3478864	0.0000008
i	11.6772762	0.0000767	11.6772853	0.0000764
peri	245.4466251	0.0002691	245.4466373	0.0002697
node	326.2245392	0.0000916	326.2245320	0.0000913
tp	2457744.5376278	0.0018291	2457744.5376832	0.0018283

Backward simulation
I used the Bulirsch-Stoer algorithm implemented by the Mercury software by J.E.Chambers (1999):
"A Hybrid Symplectic Integrator that Permits Close Encounters between Massive Bodies."
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol 304, pp793-799.

           Integration parameters
           ----------------------

   Algorithm: Bulirsch-Stoer (general)

   Integration start epoch:         2458200.5000000 days
   Integration stop epoch:      -100000000.0000000
   Output interval:                     100.000
   Output precision:                 medium

   Initial timestep:                 .050 days
   Accuracy parameter:              1.0000E-12
   Central mass:                    1.0000E+00 solar masses
   J_2:                              0.0000E+00
   J_4:                              0.0000E+00
   J_6:                              0.0000E+00
   Ejection distance:               1.0000E+02 AU
   Radius of central body:          5.0000E-03 AU

   Includes collisions:                 no
   Includes fragmentation:              no
   Includes relativity:                 no

The arbitrary threshold to consider an asteroid to be ejected from the solar system (or to enter it in case of backward simulation) is 100 au.

All planets from Mercury to Pluto plus asteroids Ceres, Pallas and Vesta have been taken into account.

Simulation results
76 out of 100 initial clones have entered the solar system from a distance greater than 100 au.

The graph below has to be read from right to left (the number of clones decreases as you go in the past - the simulation time has been divided into 10 intervals).

The arrival time into the solar system has the following density distribution:

In the following graphs, the simulation time has been divided into 10 intervals: in every interval and for every clone we find the maximum value for the relevant orbital parameter.

Orbit Specific Energy