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Tuesday, August 11, 2026

2018 BM33 and (206673) = 2003 YC111

Covariance clone convergence summary: - Objective: minimize nominal velocity

Prefix: 2018_BM33_2003_YC111_nominal_100

Run setup:

- Pair mode, 100 covariance clones per target plus nominal.

- 101 samples per target, 10,201 sample cross-combinations.

- Analysis epoch: JD 2461200.5.

- Objective: minimize nominal velocity.

- Nominal sample source: covariance.

- Integrator: REBOUND IAS15 in AU-yr-Msun, initial dt 0.3652564 day (0.001 yr), default IAS15 epsilon.

- Massive bodies: Sun; Mercury, Venus, Earth-Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto barycenters; Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta.

- Test particles: all nominal/covariance-clone samples for the 2 targets; clones are massless and do not perturb the massive bodies or each other.


Window window_1:

- Window center: 7536.000000 yr before analysis epoch.

- Selected best time: 7612.261607 yr before analysis epoch.

- Selected-time JD: -319226.770450.

- Median relative velocity at selected time: 4.887196 m/s.

- Median distance at selected time: 119,529.208 km.


Distance distribution at selected time:

- Minimum combination at selected time: 2,990.397 km.

- p05 / p16: 13,314.389 / 45,322.580 km.

- Median / p84 / p95: 119,529.208 / 244,830.568 / 386,701.755 km.

- Max: 603,364.852 km.

- Nominal at selected time: 3,710.267 km.

- Fractions below thresholds: 3.66% < 10,000 km; 40.12% < 100,000 km; 100.00% < 1,000,000 km.


Relative-velocity distribution at selected time:

- Minimum combination at selected time: 0.082308 m/s.

- p05 / p16: 0.547095 / 1.857212 m/s.

- Median / p84 / p95: 4.887196 / 9.988578 / 15.767729 m/s.

- Max: 24.752360 m/s.

- Nominal at selected time: 0.090495 m/s.

- Fractions below thresholds: 9.62% < 1 m/s; 84.04% < 10 m/s.







Covariance clone convergence summary: - Objective: minimize median velocity
Prefix: 2018_BM33_2003_YC111_median_100

Targets from ../ele.txt:
- 2018 BM33 = (2018 BM33)
- 2003 YC111 = 206673 (2003 YC111)

Run setup:
- Pair mode, 100 covariance clones per target plus nominal.
- 101 samples per target, 10,201 sample cross-combinations.
- Analysis epoch: JD 2461200.5.
- Objective: minimize median velocity.
- Nominal sample source: covariance.
- Integrator: REBOUND IAS15 in AU-yr-Msun, initial dt 0.3652564 day (0.001 yr), default IAS15 epsilon.
- Massive bodies: Sun; Mercury, Venus, Earth-Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto barycenters; Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta.
- Test particles: all nominal/covariance-clone samples for the 2 targets; clones are massless and do not perturb the massive bodies or each other.

Window window_1:
- Window center: 7536.000000 yr before analysis epoch.
- Selected best time: 7611.996605 yr before analysis epoch.
- Selected-time JD: -319129.976812.
- Median relative velocity at selected time: 4.872823 m/s.
- Median distance at selected time: 119,286.334 km.

Distance distribution at selected time:
- Minimum combination at selected time: 3,321.845 km.
- p05 / p16: 13,576.038 / 45,314.551 km.
- Median / p84 / p95: 119,286.334 / 243,514.844 / 383,784.754 km.
- Max: 603,663.869 km.
- Nominal at selected time: 3,427.585 km.
- Fractions below thresholds: 3.55% < 10,000 km; 40.29% < 100,000 km; 100.00% < 1,000,000 km.

Relative-velocity distribution at selected time:
- Minimum combination at selected time: 0.098422 m/s.
- p05 / p16: 0.551154 / 1.850749 m/s.
- Median / p84 / p95: 4.872823 / 9.925090 / 15.636750 m/s.
- Max: 24.687983 m/s.
- Nominal at selected time: 0.104006 m/s.
- Fractions below thresholds: 9.43% < 1 m/s; 84.54% < 10 m/s.





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