Covariance clone convergence summary: minimize nominal velocity
Run setup:
- Pair mode, 100 covariance clones per target plus nominal.
- 101 samples per target, 10,201 sample cross-combinations.
- Analysis epoch: JD 2461200.5.
- Objective: minimize nominal velocity.
- Nominal sample source: covariance.
- Integrator: REBOUND IAS15 in AU-yr-Msun, initial dt 0.3652564 day (0.001 yr), default IAS15 epsilon.
- Massive bodies: Sun; Mercury, Venus, Earth-Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto barycenters; Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta.
- Test particles: all nominal/covariance-clone samples for the 2 targets; clones are massless and do not perturb the massive bodies or each other.
Window window_1:
- Window center: 2803.000000 yr before analysis epoch.
- Selected best time: 2802.818859 yr before analysis epoch.
- Selected-time JD: 1437452.973716.
- Median relative velocity at selected time: 0.721601 m/s.
- Median distance at selected time: 43,032.279 km.
Distance distribution at selected time:
- Minimum combination at selected time: 22,704.637 km.
- p05 / p16: 23,742.091 / 28,904.316 km.
- Median / p84 / p95: 43,032.279 / 57,237.225 / 66,740.024 km.
- Max: 91,420.166 km.
- Nominal at selected time: 42,504.950 km.
- Fractions below thresholds: 0.00% < 10,000 km; 100.00% < 100,000 km; 100.00% < 1,000,000 km.
Relative-velocity distribution at selected time:
- Minimum combination at selected time: 0.294131 m/s.
- p05 / p16: 0.308852 / 0.359331 m/s.
- Median / p84 / p95: 0.721601 / 1.517238 / 2.105724 m/s.
- Max: 4.090306 m/s.
- Nominal at selected time: 0.526255 m/s.
- Fractions below thresholds: 65.32% < 1 m/s; 100.00% < 10 m/s.
Covariance clone convergence summary: minimize median velocity
Run setup:
- Pair mode, 100 covariance clones per target plus nominal.
- 101 samples per target, 10,201 sample cross-combinations.
- Analysis epoch: JD 2461200.5.
- Objective: minimize median velocity.
- Nominal sample source: covariance.
- Integrator: REBOUND IAS15 in AU-yr-Msun, initial dt 0.3652564 day (0.001 yr), default IAS15 epsilon.
- Massive bodies: Sun; Mercury, Venus, Earth-Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto barycenters; Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta.
- Test particles: all nominal/covariance-clone samples for the 2 targets; clones are massless and do not perturb the massive bodies or each other.
Window window_1:
- Window center: 2803.000000 yr before analysis epoch.
- Selected best time: 2802.813520 yr before analysis epoch.
- Selected-time JD: 1437454.923699.
- Median relative velocity at selected time: 0.720172 m/s.
- Median distance at selected time: 43,035.937 km.
Distance distribution at selected time:
- Minimum combination at selected time: 22,647.707 km.
- p05 / p16: 23,705.650 / 28,868.694 km.
- Median / p84 / p95: 43,035.937 / 57,243.968 / 66,745.529 km.
- Max: 91,420.269 km.
- Nominal at selected time: 42,508.718 km.
- Fractions below thresholds: 0.00% < 10,000 km; 100.00% < 100,000 km; 100.00% < 1,000,000 km.
Relative-velocity distribution at selected time:
- Minimum combination at selected time: 0.290953 m/s.
- p05 / p16: 0.306359 / 0.357196 m/s.
- Median / p84 / p95: 0.720172 / 1.516254 / 2.106361 m/s.
- Max: 4.089507 m/s.
- Nominal at selected time: 0.526748 m/s.
- Fractions below thresholds: 65.36% < 1 m/s; 100.00% < 10 m/s.
The run using the median objective closely reproduces the nominal-objective result, strengthening the robustness of the convergence.
The low dispersion shows that the nominal solution might not be simply a lucky realization. This agreement is more significant for the relative velocity than for the distance, therefore, the case is intriguing but not conclusive evidence of a common origin.
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